Vegas Micro-Unit Density + Naked City Tax Trap + Tampa STR Portfolio
Downtown Vegas 83-unit delivering $33M Year 30. Naked City 24-unit property tax error breaks the model. Tampa STR 8.8% CoC with Florida regulatory protection.
This Week's Deals
Four properties across two markets — a San Jose fix & flip with a Max IQ model disagreement, an 83-unit Vegas micro-unit density play, a Naked City 24-unit with a critical tax error, and a turnkey Tampa STR with state-level regulatory protection.
🏠 San Jose Fix & Flip — 371 E William St
San Jose, CA 95112 · 3bd/2ba · 956 sqft · Built 1910 List $800,000 · Offer modeled at $775,000 · Hard money 10% down
This one was run through Max IQ — three models, three perspectives. The result was a split verdict.
Max IQ Results
| Model | Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus (Skeptic) | 4/10 | Hold |
| GPT-4o (Sponsor) | 7/10 | Buy |
| Grok 3 (Quant) | 7/10 | Buy |
| Average | 6/10 | Conditional Buy |
The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Offer Price | $775,000 |
| Down Payment (10%) | $77,500 |
| Total Cash In | $120,140 |
| Rehab Budget | $85,000 |
| ARV (modeled) | $1,055,827 |
| Net Profit | $105,675 |
| ROI on Cash | 88% |
Opportunity
Strong ROI on a relatively small cash position. At $775K, the model produces 88% cash-on-cash return on $120K deployed. Located one block from SJSU with commercial zoning — opens the buyer pool to investors, house-hackers, and development plays. ARV modeled at $1,055,827 based on recent area comps.
Risk
The model disagreement is the story. Claude scored it 4/10 (hold) while GPT-4o and Grok scored 7/10 (buy). The disagreement comes from ARV uncertainty and a thin profit margin of approximately 10% on resale value — minimal cushion for rehab overruns or any market softness. The $85,000 rehab budget must be contractor-verified before offering.
Verdict: 6/10 — Conditional Buy
At or below $775K with a verified rehab budget and confirmed ARV comps. Do not overpay — every $25K over ask compresses an already thin margin.
🏢 Vegas Carson View — 83-Unit Micro-Unit Density
200 S 8th St, Downtown Las Vegas, NV 89101 $6,900,000 ($83,133/unit) · 83 Units · Motel Conversion
The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Down Payment (25%) | $1,725,000 |
| Total Cash Required | $1,932,000 |
| Gross Rent | $73,940/mo ($891/unit avg) |
| Annual Cash Flow | $109,176 |
| Day 1 CoC | 5.7% |
| Cap Rate | 7.3% |
| DCR | 1.28 |
| Break-Even Occupancy | 81.1% |
| Year 30 Total Profit | $32,966,494 |
Opportunity
83 doors at $83K/unit on the Fremont corridor with 6 years of proven occupancy including through COVID. Kitchen conversions on 59 studios at a conservative $150/unit bump produce $1.45M in implied asset value on ~$708K capex — a 105% ROI without touching the remaining 24 units. 81.1% break-even ratio means you only need to exceed 18.9% vacancy to cover all costs and debt service.
Risk
Staffed operating business, not a passive hold. On-site payroll runs $8,600/mo and owner-paid utilities add $8,300/mo. Average unit size of 228 SF creates financing complexity — many conventional lenders won't touch sub-250 SF. Confirm lender terms before going under contract.
Verdict: 7/10 — Buy, Experienced Operator Only
Strong urban density play at an irreplaceable basis. Right hands, with $300-400K in reserves beyond the down payment.
🏢 Vegas Fortune Villas — Property Tax Error Breaks the Model
2216-2224 Tam Dr, Las Vegas, NV 89102 · Naked City $2,850,000 ($118,750/unit) · 24 Units · 91% Occupied
Modeled vs Tax-Corrected
| Metric | As Modeled | Tax Corrected |
|---|---|---|
| Property Taxes | $450/mo | ~$1,425/mo |
| Annual Cash Flow | $17,304 | ~$5,604 |
| CoC | 2.2% | ~0.7% |
| DCR | 1.11 | ~1.04 |
| Monthly Cash Flow | $1,442 | ~$467 |
The Tax Problem
Nevada's effective rate on a $2.85M purchase puts actual post-sale taxes at approximately $17,100/year — more than 3x the modeled $5,400. That single correction drops monthly cash flow from $1,442 to $467 and DCR from 1.11 to 1.04.
At 1.04 DCR one bad month turns negative.
MANDATORY before offer: Call Clark County Assessor at (702) 455-3882. Ask for the actual assessed value and tax obligation on a property purchased at $2,850,000.
Opportunity
24 units near the Strip with R-4 zoning and a motivated seller. RUBS utility recovery adds $14-17K/yr in NOI at minimal cost. Renovation upside on unrenovated units. At $2.4-2.5M with verified taxes the deal potentially becomes interesting.
Verdict: 4.5/10 — Hard Pass at Current Ask
Walk unless taxes verify or price corrects to $2.4-2.5M.
🏖️ Tampa STR 4-Unit — 8.8% CoC, Florida Protected
4513 W McElroy Ave, South Tampa, FL 33611 $850,000 ($212,500/unit) · 4 Studios · Turnkey Airbnb
The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Down Payment (25%) | $212,500 |
| Total Cash Required | $238,000 |
| Gross STR Revenue | $16,000/mo |
| Annual Cash Flow | $21,000 |
| CoC | 8.8% |
| Cap Rate | 8.2% |
| DCR | 1.43 |
| Expense Ratio | 62% |
Why 62% Expense Ratio Is Not a Problem
| LTR | STR | |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Revenue | $6,000/mo | $16,000/mo |
| Expense Ratio | 40-45% | 62% |
| NOI | ~$3,300/mo | ~$5,780/mo |
The 62% comes from three STR-specific costs that don't exist in LTR: Airbnb fees (14%), cleaning per-stay (8%), and management (15%). The $16K gross compensates for all of it and produces 75% higher NOI than the equivalent LTR.
The Florida Advantage
Florida Statute 509 provides state-level preemption — cities and counties cannot prohibit short-term rentals outright. This removes the existential regulatory risk that makes most urban STR investments fragile.
Risk
The model only works at $16K/month gross. A drop to $13K approaches breakeven. Verify trailing 12-month Airbnb payout history before closing.
Verdict: 7.5/10 — Buy Contingent Revenue Verification
Confirm $180K+ annual gross from actual payout history. If verified, move confidently.
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