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Welcome to this edition of Dealsletter! We're excited to introduce a new feature: at the end of every newsletter, you'll now find a "Grok-4 Analysis on Accuracy of All Data" section, where we've leveraged Grok-4 from xAI to independently verify and estimate the accuracy of all property details, financials, and market data presented. This ensures the information we deliver is true, reliable, and trustworthy for our readers, because your investment decisions deserve nothing less. Dive in below for the latest deals!
Oakland Champion 6-Plex - 44% RENT UPSIDE WITH PATIENT TURNOVER
📍 Address: 3464 Champion St, Oakland, CA 94602
💰 Price: $999,999 ($166,667/unit) | Target: $950,000
🏠 Property: 7 Units (4×1BR, 2×2BR, 1 studio), 4,084 SF, Built 1956
🏦 At $950K: 15.78% CoC Year 3 | 27.6% IRR | At Ask: 13.49% CoC, 27.6% IRR
Why This is a Great Investment:
Oakland Dimond 6-plex offering massive 44% rent upside through four units severely below market but requiring strict Oakland Rent Adjustment Ordinance compliance preventing immediate increases. With Unit 2 at $892 versus $2,150 market (59% below), Unit 3 at $944 versus $1,750 (46% below), Unit 6 at $1,125 versus $1,750 (36% below), and Unit 1 at $1,089 versus $2,150 (49% below), property creates $45,132 annual upside requiring natural 30-40% annual turnover over 2-3 years to capture through vacancy decontrol provisions.
This represents classic Oakland value-add requiring patience, legal compliance, and natural turnover execution versus forced rent increases or tenant harassment tactics.
Investment Analysis (35% Down Oakland) 📝
Investment Metrics | |
|---|---|
Purchase Price | $999,999 |
Down Payment (35%) | $350,000 |
Closing Costs | $20,000 |
Total Cash Required | $370,000 |
Current NOI (cleaned) | $59,622 |
Year 1 Cash Flow | $7,722 |
Year 1 CoC | 2.09% |
Severe Below-Market Analysis 🚀
Unit | Current | Market | Upside | % Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit 2 (2BR) | $892 | $2,150 | $1,258/mo | 59% ❌ |
Unit 3 (1BR) | $944 | $1,750 | $806/mo | 46% ❌ |
Unit 6 (1BR) | $1,125 | $1,750 | $625/mo | 36% ❌ |
Unit 1 (2BR) | $1,089 | $2,150 | $1,061/mo | 49% ❌ |
Unit 4 (1BR) | $1,595 | $1,750 | $155/mo | 9% ✅ |
Unit 5 (1BR) | $1,895 | $1,750 | -$145/mo | Above ✅ |
Total Rent Analysis | |
|---|---|
Current Monthly | $8,489 |
Market Monthly | $12,250 |
Annual Upside | $45,132 |
Percentage Increase | 44% |
Oakland Rent Control Execution Strategy 📈
Natural Turnover Timeline | |
|---|---|
Year 1 (30% turnover) | 2 units market |
Additional Income | $24,000/year |
Year 2 (2 more units) | 4 total market |
Additional Income | $12,000/year |
Year 3 (all stabilized) | 6 units market |
Total Captured | $45,132/year |
Year 3 Stabilized Performance 💰
Stabilized Returns | |
|---|---|
Market Gross Income | $147,000 |
Operating Expenses | $44,000 |
NOI | $101,807 |
Debt Service | $51,900 |
Annual Cash Flow | $49,907 |
Cash-on-Cash | 13.49% |
DSCR | 1.96x |
5-Year Projection & Exit 📊
Year | Scenario | NOI | Cash Flow | CoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Year 1 | 2 units turn | $71,622 | $19,722 | 5.33% |
Year 2 | 4 total market | $83,622 | $31,722 | 8.57% |
Year 3 | All market | $101,807 | $49,907 | 13.49% |
Year 4 | Market +3% | $106,901 | $55,001 | 14.86% |
Year 5 | Market +3% | $112,242 | $60,342 | 16.31% |
Exit Strategy (Year 5) | |
|---|---|
Year 5 NOI | $112,242 |
Exit Cap (6.5%) | $1,726,492 |
Less Costs/Payoff | $692,307 |
Cash at Sale | $1,034,685 |
Plus 5-Year CF | $217,394 |
Total Profit | $882,079 (238%) |
5-Year IRR | 27.6% |
Critical Success Factors:
MUST follow Oakland Rent Adjustment Ordinance legal requirements
Cannot force tenants out or harass for vacancy creation
Natural 30-40% annual turnover typical but not guaranteed
Cash-for-keys ($5-10K) legal option to accelerate turnover
Requires 2-3 year patience for full value-add capture
Four units at 36-59% below market indicates long-term tenants
Recommended Strategy: Offer $425,000 with seller financing at 5.5% creating Year 2 positive cash flow, alternatively all-cash $425K for 15.78% Year 3 CoC
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Walnut Creek House Flip - $151K PROFIT WITH TIGHT 10.1% MARGIN
📍 Address: 529 Wiget Ln, Walnut Creek, CA 94598
💰 Price: $1,099,000 ($580/SF)
🏠 Property: 4BR/2BA, 1,894 SF, Built 1971, 10,890 SF Lot
🏦 Gross Profit: $151,366 | ROI: 55.8% Cash | Timeline: 5 Months
Why This is a Great Investment:
Walnut Creek Northgate ranch offering clean cosmetic flip with $151K profit potential but requiring perfect $70K renovation execution within tight 10.1% margin on ARV. Property shows surprisingly good condition for 1971 with recent roof, updated white kitchen, clean bathrooms, but needs carpet removal/LVP installation, popcorn ceiling removal, paint refresh, and landscaping updates. Recent October comps showing $715-$804/SF support conservative $1,500,000 ARV but small $212/SF spread between purchase and exit price creates minimal error tolerance.
This represents Bay Area flip requiring experienced contractor relationships and accurate cost estimation versus renovation budget overruns destroying thin margins.
Investment Analysis (Hard Money 85%) 📝
Investment Metrics | |
|---|---|
Purchase Price | $1,099,000 |
Hard Money (85%) | $934,150 |
Down Payment (15%) | $164,850 |
Points (2%) | $18,683 |
Closing Costs | $8,000 |
Cash to Close | $193,533 |
Renovation Budget | $70,000 |
Staging/Holding | $7,500 |
Total Capital | $271,033 |
Renovation Breakdown 🚀
Scope | Cost |
|---|---|
Flooring (remove carpet, install LVP) | $19,000 |
Paint & Remove Popcorn Ceilings | $20,046 |
Kitchen Updates (keep cabinets/granite) | $5,300 |
Bathroom Updates (2) | $3,700 |
Fixtures & Hardware | $6,700 |
Exterior/Landscape Refresh | $12,700 |
Subtotal | $67,446 |
Buffer (4%) | $2,554 |
Total Renovation | $70,000 |
Comparable Sales Analysis 💰
Recent Sales (Oct 2025, 4BR/2BA) | |
|---|---|
924 Cheyenne Dr (2,052 SF) | $804/SF |
231 Los Felicas (1,972 SF) | $715/SF |
2233 Lomond (2,280 SF) | $757/SF |
Conservative ARV Target | $792/SF |
1,894 SF × $792 | $1,500,000 |
Complete Project Analysis 📊
5-Month Timeline & Costs | |
|---|---|
Renovation Period | 6-8 weeks |
Staging/Marketing | 2 weeks |
Sale Period | 4-6 weeks |
Total Duration | 5 months |
Holding Costs | |
|---|---|
Hard Money Interest (5mo) | $40,875 |
Property Taxes | $5,495 |
Insurance | $1,250 |
Utilities | $1,500 |
Total Holding | $49,120 |
Exit Analysis | |
|---|---|
Sale Price | $1,500,000 |
Realtor Commission (5%) | $75,000 |
Closing Costs (1%) | $15,000 |
Net Proceeds | $1,410,000 |
Less Total Investment | $1,258,634 |
Gross Profit | $151,366 |
Cash-on-Cash ROI | 55.8% |
Annualized ROI | 134% |
Risk Assessment | |
|---|---|
Break-Even Price | $1,336,419 |
ARV | $1,500,000 |
Safety Margin | $163,581 (10.9%) |
Profit Margin on ARV | 10.1% ⚠️ |
Critical Success Factors:
MUST stay within $70K renovation budget (no overruns)
Walnut Creek permits can be strict requiring compliance
Market must support $750-800/SF pricing at exit
Interest rate environment affects buyer pool significantly
Each additional month holding costs $8,175 interest
Small 10.1% profit margin on ARV leaves minimal error tolerance
Recommended Strategy: Offer $1,075,000 (2% discount) improving margin to 11.8%, verify contractor bids before closing, maintain strict renovation timeline