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- #117: SF Bayview Quick Flip + Oakland Value-Add 11-Plex
#117: SF Bayview Quick Flip + Oakland Value-Add 11-Plex
This week's issue: SF Bayview cosmetic flip with 159% ROI, overpriced San Jose light flip warning, Oakland 11-plex with renovation upside but expense concerns, and Las Vegas fourplex with below-market pricing
Kevin
September 17, 2025
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SF Bayview/Silver Terrace - QUICK FLIP OPPORTUNITY
📍 Address: 41 Apollo St, San Francisco, CA 94124
💰 Price: $599,000
🏠 Property: 3BR/2BA, 1,087 SF
🏦 ARV: $929,700 | Profit: $112,437 | ROI: 159%
Why This is a Great Investment:
Priced to move in gentrifying Silver Terrace! This property needs cosmetic updates but shows no major structural issues. At $551/SF with comps supporting $855/SF after renovation, there's clear profit potential with moderate risk. The T-Line proximity and ongoing neighborhood improvement provide strong market support for the ARV.
This represents a classic bread-and-butter flip in an improving SF neighborhood.
Flip Analysis (10% Down Hard Money) 📝
Investment Metrics | |
|---|---|
Purchase Price | $599,000 |
Down Payment (10%) | $59,900 |
Loan Points/Fees | $10,782 |
Cash to Close | $70,682 |
Renovation Budget | $115,500 |
Total Cash Required | $70,682 |
Profit Projections 🚀
5-Month Flip Timeline | |
|---|---|
Conservative ARV | $929,700 |
Total Project Cost | $817,263 |
Selling Costs (6%) | $55,782 |
Holding Costs | $30,209 |
Net Profit | $112,437 |
Cash-on-Cash ROI | 159% |
Annualized ROI | 381% |
Renovation Scope 🏗️
Category | Budget | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
Kitchen Update | $20,000 | New cabinets, counters, appliances |
2 Bathroom Renovations | $16,000 | Modern finishes, $8K each |
Flooring Throughout | $8,000 | LVP for durability |
Paint & Fixtures | $7,000 | Fresh, modern appeal |
Exterior/Curb Appeal | $20,000 | Paint, landscaping, cleanup |
Permits/Contingency | $15,500 | SF requirements |
Market Validation 📊
Comparable Sales Analysis | |
|---|---|
Recent Sales Range | $800-950/SF |
Conservative Target | $855/SF |
Purchase Price/SF | $551/SF |
Margin of Safety | $304/SF |
Supporting Comps | 107 Venus ($945/SF), 325 Bridgeview ($932/SF) |
Market Advantages:
Rapid gentrification in Silver Terrace
T-Line provides downtown access
First-time buyer target market
Still affordable relative to SF
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San Jose Orlando Dr - OVERPRICED LIGHT FLIP WARNING
📍 Address: 1519 Orlando Dr, San Jose, CA 95122
💰 Price: $849,888
🏠 Property: 4BR/2BA, 1,440 SF
🏦 ARV: $1,080,000 | Profit: $63,930 | ROI: 63.8% (Requires Negotiation)
Why This is a Great Investment:
Move-in ready with granite counters and tile floors - but overpriced at $590/SF! While the property needs minimal work, the asking price leaves insufficient margin for error. This only works with significant price reduction and confidence in achieving $750/SF ARV.
The property has potential but requires aggressive negotiation to make the numbers work.
At Asking Price Analysis 📝
Investment Metrics (Asking Price) | |
|---|---|
Purchase Price | $849,888 |
Down Payment (10%) | $84,989 |
Loan Points/Fees | $15,298 |
Cash to Close | $100,287 |
Light Renovation Budget | $55,000 |
Total Cash Required | $100,287 |
Marginal Profit Analysis 🚨
4-Month Flip at Asking | |
|---|---|
Revised ARV | $1,080,000 |
Total Project Cost | $1,016,070 |
Net Profit | $63,930 |
Cash-on-Cash ROI | 63.8% |
Risk Level | HIGH |
Negotiated Price Strategy 💰
Recommended Offer: $799,000 | |
|---|---|
Reduced Purchase Price | $799,000 |
Down Payment (10%) | $79,900 |
Cash to Close | $89,197 |
Same Renovation | $55,000 |
Revised Net Profit | $114,642 |
Improved ROI | 128% |
Market Reality Check 📊
Property Condition Analysis | |
|---|---|
Granite Counters | Already installed |
Tile Floors | Throughout (saves $8K) |
Required Work | Paint, fixtures, staging only |
Advantage | Minimal renovation needed |
Disadvantage | High purchase price |
Critical Success Factors:
Must negotiate to $799,000 maximum
ARV must achieve $1,080,000 minimum
Keep renovation under $50,000
4BR configuration appeals to families
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